1The following complementary webpage with time-ordered, geo-located videos been set up for this paper: http://loveparadevideos.heroku.com/. Note: Web materials (URL links) were last accessed during March and April 2012.

2Government of Canada, Emergency preparedness guidelines for mass, crowd-intensive events, see http://orise.orau.gov/csepp/documents/planning/evacuation-documents/guidance-documents/canada-crowdevents.pdf (1994).

3Richtlinie für Mikroskopische Entfluchtungsanalysen (in German) The RiMEA Project, see http://www.rimea.de/downloads.html (2008).

4Musterversammlungsstättenverordnung [German Safety Regulations for Public Events], see http://www.is-argebau.de/Dokumente/4231214.pdf and http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Versammlungsstättenverordnung (2008).

5Still, K., Crowd Dynamics, Ph.D. thesis, University of Warwick, Warwick (2000); see http://www.safercrowds.com/PhD-Chapter-2.html for the quote given in our manuscript.

6Polizeipräsidium Essen, Vorläufiger Abschlussbericht from 31. Oktober 2010 zur Nachbereitung des polizeilichen Einsatzes der Veranstaltung ‘Loveparade’ am 24.07.2010 in Duisburg [Police Report], see http://www.mik.nrw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Redakteure/Dokumente/Themen_und_Aufgaben/Schutz_und_Sicherheit/110601_vorlaeufiger-abschlussbericht.pdf.

7Final report of the city of Duisburg, see http://www.duisburg.de/ratsinformationssystem/bi/vo0050.php?__kvonr=20056110&voselect=20049862.

8For a Google Earth photograph of the Love Parade festival area in Duisburg and its surrounding, see http://www.earth-dots.de/massenpanik-auf-der-love-parade-99843.html. For an aerial photograph taken on the day of the event see http://www1.wdr.de/themen/archiv/sp_loveparade/loveparade112.html.

9360 degree representation of the site of the event: http://www1.wdr.de/themen/archiv/sp_loveparade/loveparade150.html; a Google Streetmap version can be found here: http://g.co/maps/65r7j.

10YouTube channel with videos of the Love Parade in Duisburg, see http://www.youtube.com/user/LoveparadeDuisburg?feature=watch.

11Wikipedia article on the Love Parade Disaster: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade_stampede.

12Wikipedia article on the Love Parade and its history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade.

13Wikipedia map associated with German Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%C3%9Cbersichtskarte_Loveparade_Duisburg_2010.jpg.

14Loveparade 2010 Duisburg planning documents, 2007-2010, see http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Loveparade_2010_Duisburg_planning_documents,_2007-2010.

15Expert opinion on the areas of responsibility of the organizer, city of Duisburg, and police at the Love Parade 2010, see http://www.mik.nrw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Redakteure/Dokumente/Themen_und_Aufgaben/Schutz_und_Sicherheit/100901gutachten_sfe.pdf.

16http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/links/.

17Event Log of the City of Duisburg, http://loveparade2010doku.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/10-1405_2_anlage_621.pdf.

18Entfluchtungsanalyse Love Parade 2010 [Evacuation analysis Love Parade 2010], see http://docunews.org/go/2010_07_13-traffgo-ht-entfluchtungsanalyse-loveparade-2010-49/, Entfluchtungsanalyse Loveparade 2010, Nachtrag [Supplement], see Anlage 30 [attachment no. 30] at https://www.duisburg.de/ratsinformationssystem/bi/vo0050.php?__kvonr=20056110&voselect=20049862.

19Documentation of the events during the Love Parade 2010 in Duisburg, see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com.

20Synchronized video collection, with information regarding location and content, see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/07/31/loveparade-ungluck-videos-verknupfen-zeitstrahl/ . The synchronization procedure is described in http://loveparade2010doku.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/lopa_zeitstrahl-verknuepfungen_v120218.pdf.

21A. Brandt, G. Bönisch, J. Dahlkamp, and S. Röbel, Schwarzer Samstag, Der Spiegel 20/2011, pp.59-69, see http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-78522270.html.

22Tagesschau Love Parade Dossier, see http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/dossierloveparade100.html.

23WDR Love Parade Dossier, see http://www.wdr.de/mediathek/html/regional/uebersicht/katastrophe-loveparade.xml.

24Spiegel TV documentation on the Love Parade, see http://www.spiegel.de/video/video-1077726.html.

25Spiegel TV documentation on the Love Parade: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opd0rZVsspQ, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTbJ_vbT8Cw, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ILNAv0J1A, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHD8aqsCr9U.

26RTL II video documentation ‘100 Tage’ [100 days later] on the Love Parade: 1/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy1NDX_nA3M, 2/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38iqVvS_Ljs, 3/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zhX6bX2y7s, 4/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_UJ8c97kxg, 5/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZVzlrhXeBw, 6/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qNYmpD5mk, 7/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKqXMvAWprc, 8/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgI2aKofkLk, 9/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y00qe3PPsc, 10/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4azc7lPhVnU, 11/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRC7S4qlvjs, 12/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnr7S22_BM8, 13/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RZqYhzekjs, 14/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AusbCbphWAo, 15/15 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVYTlhkcKDY.

27Video documentation of the organizers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y73-7lFBNE (in English) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAomrwggo2s (in German).

28Synchronized multi-perspective video, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up95bUU3L0M.

29Overview videos cut from many videos of visitors, see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9cbqu5sEE0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDJaAvF0l7shttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBE79UoxCF4http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJscpcZC45shttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vooMCrcOXGshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOx_VHJd6G4.

30Video documentation by ‘LoveparadeDuisburg’: Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRUlHnvJl-Q Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDOlXcobbJM Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_agoPlP_dA Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfxdSZg9KWk.

31Critical summary videos, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxGSrPALytM and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up95bUU3L0M.

32Video illustrating the events with comments on a satellite image, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TC0Ygi7AMfM.

33Incomplete collection of surveillance videos of the organizer of the Love Parade, see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/08/30/lopavent-veroffentlicht-originalvideos-von-7-der-16-uberwachungskameras-der-loveparade-2010/#downloads. Camera 14 and 15 covered the tunnel in the West, camera 16 the one in the East. Camera 13 provided a view over the ramp. Camera 12 shows the upper part of the ramp and the part where it enters the festival area. Camera 4 shows the view from the stage on the festival area, sometimes pointing approximately towards the ramp. The floats and the surrounding people are shown by cameras 4, 5 and 12. An overview of 6 surveillance cameras it given at: 15:30-15:40: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P18RLNIWgKQ 15:40-16:00: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFoNTyBmpI 16:00-16:20: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfQVqitwlAQ 16:20-16:40: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ignCf7-BnBg.

34Time line: http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/07/28/loveparade-2010-zeitablauf-sperrungen-und-durchlassungen/, http://blog.odem.org/2010/07/ablauf-tragoedie.html.

35Collection of videos, time-ordered, with approximate geo-location of filming person: http://loveparadevideos.heroku.com/.

36Before 16:07:30 CURUBA300 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eaq2DPmafyI 16:15:52 Todesparade2010 1/10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpkclRCXaQ 16:16:35 trampelklette 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaDoWMAZYyo 16:22:54 xetzxetzxetz 16:25 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3jL17JOA8U 16:23:45 thaido http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SXgp3VlM88 16:24:12 Todesparade2010 3/10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PQqBePT6ig 16:24:38 GermanTranceMusic 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNcIlNGQkgk 16:24:48 pizzamanne 2 [from 16:24] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aQuTaMbS38 16:24:54 trampelklette 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSGJW1uJMS0 16:25:29 xetzxetzxetz 16:27 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvlzywaFnmc 16:26:07 Todesparade2010 4/10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so6-7Ezeo3U 16:26:20 Letroen http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMld0jhO7Jk 16:28:24 pizzamanne http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aQuTaMbS38 16:29:01 dirkbvb74-1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmQR6kgwSxA 16:29:12 coolwojtek 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsOyIBCMExM 16:29:40 funka84 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3nDQti-zDY 16:29:44 Todesparade2010 6/10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTiQ131QejE 16:30:33 pizzamanne 2 [from 16:30] (starting at 2:15) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aQuTaMbS38 16:31:21 TheHubschrauber92 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPkemW3ixC4 16:31:59 rheinhousen 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBkilEAyK80 16:32:10 dreamshockerPro http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adZ6RaK8C-E 16:33:11 Habanos2009 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoX1rPefuuI 16:33:55 joelooo1 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVvUl1LVEwQ 16:34:49 joelooo1 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mw4W6z_wWcM 16:34:51 xfugox http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arncFs1DU0k 16:35:11 pizzamanne 2 [from 16:35] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aQuTaMbS38 16:35:19 Deepkisses [from 16:23] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XFTVWUN8nw 16:35:32 dirkbvb74-2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1toPUusRGU 16:36:09 MarkusLedwig http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3ik6n2BPa8 16:37:06 Ko0rn http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m597wnEMUTo 16:37:11 xetxetzxetz 16:38 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo97xHkHh3w 16:37:36 Cenobite1988 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqV3Nx0MFh4 16:37:44 real02 3/3 http://www.myvideo.de/watch/7673480/Massenpanik_Loveparade2010_3_3 16:37:57 GSayMusic http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUEB4OcsoRM (removed) 16:37:58 Klabauter0815 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1usiOJRWDU (removed) 16:38:16 Goonies11000 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dReLGi1lnc 16:38:23 pizzamanne 2 [from 16:38] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aQuTaMbS38 16:38:28 aggrostar69 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2onoJLq2-8 16:38:50 dirkbvb74-3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWXXDEZ4oKg 16:39:01 Deepkisses 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XFTVWUN8nw 16:39:20 SpaceCommander77 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLdhwP4_IXM 16:39:26 FrEaKyLaDiiiEs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1la2QTDBPU 16:39:38 GoofyMcPott http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOjNklbvxA8 16:41:27 pizzamanne 3 [from 16:41] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DvH1BYFVCQ 16:41:40 SKAKnabe http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prXmQBf27WI (removed).

37Collection of synchronized videos by ‘pizzamanne’ (potentially incorrect time stamp on videos in brackets): 1017 – ca. 15:38 (15:38 / 15:38:38) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGd1N6_hm1k 1019 – ca. 15:58 (15:58 / 15:58) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdJzV26tL78 1022 – ca. 16:07 (16:07 / 16:07:12) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_LfccdiSN0 1024 – ca. 16:08 (16:08; 16:08:49) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4f8AMEstkM 1029 – ca. 16:11 (16:11 / 16:11:53) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Zsmr9CelDY 1033 – ca. 16:15 (16:15 / 16:15:36) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gJP2QVbwVs 1034 – ca. 16:17 (16:17 / 16:17) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pweaCIXTs5U 1035 – ca. 16:18 (16:18 / 16:18) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f00Mx8MY6y8 1037 – 16:22:55 (16:22 / 16:22:54) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkc7zgPv8y0 1038 – 16:24:49 (16:24 / 16:24:48) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wpVvSWa4_8 1039 – 16:28:24 (16:28 / 16:28:24) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmEcLa4OfvU 1040 – 16:30:33 (16:30 / 16:30:34) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra_j4kTOqqE 1041 – 16:35:11 (16:35 / 16:35:12) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYjlXhPcF4s 1043 – ca. 16:37 (16:37 / 16:37) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Od-DGsPlues 1044 – 16:38:22 (? / 16:38:24) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3qlzW-B9OM 1054 – 16:59:23 (16:59 / 16:59:35) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk9BXDdGJoQ 1055 – ca. 17:04:43 (?) (17:04 / 17:04:43) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUBjVtjwl3o 1056 – ca. 17:06 (17:06 / 17:06) – Schnipsel von 1 Sek. – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCyzQ4NgVBU 1057 – 17:08:40 (17:08 / 17:08:50) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ4NdwXa0Os 1058 – ca. 17:23 (17:23 / 17:23) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtyC1YvwbEc 1065 – ca. 20:38 (20:38 / 20:38:35) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEFnUi5w7gs 1067 – ca. 20:47 (20:47 / 20:46:55) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsUHVV_k3r0 1068 – ca. 20:49 (20:49 / 20:49:31) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UYacod0w6g.

38Collection of synchronized multi-view videos, by ‘pizzamanne’: Part 1 (15:20-16:25): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9cbqu5sEE0 Part 2 (16:25-16:34): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDJaAvF0l7s Part 3 (16:34-16:44): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBE79UoxCF4 Part 4 (16:44-16:54): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJscpcZC45s Part 5 (16:54-17:05): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vooMCrcOXGs Part 6 (17:05-17:20): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOx_VHJd6G4.

39Video collection of ‘kaydee271’: 1/8 – ca. 15:25 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fT7qKC8QOw 2/8 – ca. 15:35 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrpYKGNlhdw 3/8 – 17:03:34 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoxPIvrFCNg 4/8 – 17:05:14 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3_3UIZS3dw 5/8 – 17:09:41 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc8wEMiOxoo 6/8 – 17:11:19 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN4NNmxtRU4 7/8 – 17:12:08 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfaLr_Y4U18 8/8 – 17:15:15 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYXQLgd_VA8.

40Video collection of ‘tr1nd’ (‘Backtony’): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAxOeGUCZNI.

41Video collection of ‘real02’: 3/3 – 16:37:44 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdtR4Ks_n6I, also at http://www.myvideo.de/watch/7673480/Massenpanik_Loveparade2010_3_3 1/3 – 16:58:19 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dP-5VOCU30U, also at http://www.myvideo.de/watch/7673149/Massenpanik_Loveparade2010_1_3, 2/3 – 17:05:52 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvXwrbCjgf4, also at http://www.myvideo.de/watch/7673325/Massenpanik_Loveparade2010_2_3.

42Video collection of ‘hitower78’: 1 – 16:36:17 (16:08:43 / 16:36:21 [16:37:27]) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ioEPdfvZdw 2 – 16:50:23 (16:22:49 / 16:50:27) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2r1AFSuHNI 3 – 16:52:33 (16:24:59 / 16:52:37) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEtFZVOjsK4.

43Video collection of ‘Todesparade2010’: 1/10 – 16:15:52 (16:16) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpkclRCXaQ 2/10 – ca. 16:22 (16:23) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFxyl9OaqHk 3/10 – 16:24:12 (16:25) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PQqBePT6ig 4/10 – 16:26:07 (16:27) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so6-7Ezeo3U 5/10 – ca. 16:29 (16:30) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VohMiM54wpA 6/10 – 16:29:44 (16:31) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTiQ131QejE 7/10 – ca. 16:31 (16:32) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnZGcnWyJOM 8/10 – ca. 16:33 (16:34) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cVyb3W-GAM 9/10 – ca. 16:52 (16:53) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPZiHkZQH98 10/10 – ca. 16:53 (16:54) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Pl1dVP8bA4.

44Video collection of ‘goonies11000’: 1 – 16:38:15 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dReLGi1lnc 2 – 16:55:51 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9wfsupvD24 3 – 16:59:41 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzz5geLWPV4 4 – 17:18:35 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbQr5yAjqxs.

45Video collection of ‘coolwojtek’: 1 – 16:29:12 (16:28:42) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsOyIBCMExM 2 – 16:44:44 (16:44:14) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aTXT3ht8VU 3 – 16:48:34 (16:48:04) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lHLIn78650 4 – 16:51:02 (16:50:32) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKo3rb5R_Dc 5 – 16:54:36 (15:53:36) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxd_KlaCiNY.

46Video collection of ‘mbreezer’: Summary – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfQjXi3J3ns 0 – 16:38:36 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uio5rSv520 1 – 16:47:31 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgvG2Pp7yfc 2 – 16:51:41 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofFd928JY6k 3 – 16:53:07 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aodLRaPu0E 4 – 16:53:50 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8N3ZcqOgfU 5 – 16:55:05 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdblWBmaM4Q 6 – 17:00:30 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTF0v-WY934 7 – 17:02:47 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-WKhjRMcRM 8 – 17:03:11 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2ywRwxfHbo 9 – 17:05:48 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52KPyHrqkwY.

47Video collection of ‘The1art1of1hell’: 1 – 16:59:05 (16-58-09) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxIZwvvhpp8 2 – 17:03:28 (17-02-30) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbCrmUZeJoY 3 – 17:05:38 (17-03-33) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLC3vyp0b9U 4 – 17:07:30 (17-05-42) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcAVAYDolKc 5 – 17:08:48 (17-07-34) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iCA6g984aY 6 – 17:09:52 (17-08-51) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXLuoqNDJ-A 7 – 17:11:26 (17-09-31) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7WDbM4EonY 8 – 17:12:28 (17-11-30) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRGtjcbyw8 9 – 17:13:47 (17-12-32) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEa9_k-Th7U 10 – 17:14:50 (17-13-51) – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CiEkTPk9BQ.

48Video collection of ‘rkjorge70’: 1 – 17:10:44 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb0m_n0KGms 2 – 17:13:26 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQbto4MNqOU 3 – 17:19:41 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR56iEfBQoo.

49Pictures of the Love Parade in Berlin, see: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?s=dabeccde05e177be86cfa1009c0e245e&p=60946437&postcount=44.

50See http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weltjugendtag_2005, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marienfeld, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Marienfeld_%28World_Youth_Day%29?uselang=de.

51The event was politically desired, see http://www.duisboard.de/forum/index.php?page=Thread&;postID=113125.

52For a photograph of the triangular fences see http://loveparade2010doku.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/googlemaps_bauzaeune_rampe.jpg.

53Foodstand on the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhFoNb_lsO4 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dP-5VOCU30U.

54Obstacles on the ramp and change of police shifts, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBEIur_lBuw, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN_8zwycDY0.

55Visitor forecast of Lopavent from July 8, 2010, see http://loveparade2010doku.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/bewegungsmodell.jpg, http://loveparade2010doku.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/bewegungsmodell.pdf, and the endnote14.

60Interview with the organizer of the Love Parade, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsIvv6GQVkg.

61Estimated inflows and outflows based on videos of surveillance camera 13 are provided at http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2011/08/06/bewegungsmodell/.

56The operation of the access points (isolating devices) can been seen in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTbJ_vbT8Cw The video also mentions communication problems and that the emergency units were not prepared for such a disaster.

57Aerial photographs of the Love Parade in Duisburg, see http://www.aerophoto.de/album.php?id=20100724%2018%201%20Loveparade_2010&language=0.

58Video of the crowd on the festival area, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd81KIpuVc8 and the recordings of surveillance camera 4.33

63Change in police shift, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGPrzaxsD7I&list=UUlmsa1MvDRyVXsvCld8LMzQ&index=2&feature=plcp.

64Police cordon in the Western tunnel, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-YX7tvcVYw, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_exvp1NMjw, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXcTJfmS7RQ.

65Formation of police cordon 3 in the middle of the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5BOam3eGxA and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBsBYcGVsw.

66Queues are forming on both sides of the narrowing created by triangular fences on the ramp, when police forces start to control in- and outflows, thereby creating a bottleneck, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIhGnrR6Utc, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5BOam3eGxA, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBsBYcGVsw.

67The second police cordon in the Eastern tunnel opens up, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGx1hsOmm_M and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIhGnrR6Utc.

68First visitors are entering the festival area via the narrow staircase, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaDoWMAZYyo and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CEnjxQBmf4.

69Security people prevent a flow of people on the staircase, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFxyl9OaqHk.

70The first police cordon in the Western tunnel opens up, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osLQIVR–fU.

71First people are climbing the pole, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDOlXcobbJM, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvlzywaFnmc, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SXgp3VlM88.

72The third police cordon dissolves, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PQqBePT6ig and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpzISdBE3dA.

73Visitors are using the small staircase to get up to the festival areas, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so6-7Ezeo3U.

74Someone has climbed a traffic sign, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so6-7Ezeo3U#t=2m41s.

75A fourth police cordon is formed in the upper area of the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ignCf7-BnBg.

59G. K. Still, Duisburg – 24th July 2010, Love Parade Incident, see http://www.derwesten-recherche.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Still-Gutachten.pdf.

62Surveillance videos of the ramp can be seen at: 14:00-14:20: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ28eiBoS0g 14:20-14:40: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMgs_y8_Ftg 14:40-15:00: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx2GlfGCHo4 15:00-15:20: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzrzMU8L3TY 15:20-15:40: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbdDmlYYb8c 15:40-16:00: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgt9fh841P4 16:00-16:20: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIhGnrR6Utc 16:20-16:40: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpzISdBE3dA.

76Crowd shouting ‘Die Mauer muss weg!’ [‘We must get rid of the wall (cordon)!’], see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opd0rZVsspQ.

77Jamming on the upper part of the ramp, where visitors try to enter the festival area, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcQ21EmK7u0 [Kamera 12 (14:00-14:20)] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ28eiBoS0g [Kamera 13 (14:00-14:20)].

78Visitors climb the slopes to reach the festival area from the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IB6N6cSVxA.

79According to the YouTube description, a policeman says: ‘The venue is full.’, and people overcome fences to get to the festival area from the tunnel, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOjjW7Jp_Uw and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm-ScKTV6nw.

80Flow on staircase, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDOlXcobbJM#t=4m50s.

81People scream for their lives, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_agoPlP_dA#t=4m22s.

82A bent traffic sign can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDOlXcobbJM; later on, it disappeared below the crowd, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzz5geLWPV4.

83People shout that others should move on more quickly, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3nDQti-zDY and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3nDQti-zDY.

84Signs of crowd turbulence around the pole, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3ik6n2BPa8.

85http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWXXDEZ4oKghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmQR6kgwSxAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1toPUusRGU.

86An unconscious woman is carried over the crowd towards the staircase, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbvDLmQTED8.

87Slowly moving crowd in the tunnel, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPcH4zZtY7w.

88Loud speaker announcement stating ‘The venue is full.’, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y85nUacO2GU.

89Problems between staircase and tunnel, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aTXT3ht8VU.

90Many people raising their hands, hoping for help (visible in full screen mode), see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lHLIn78650.

91An emergency vehicle enters the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKo3rb5R_Dc.

92http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VEbvBMrAG8.

93A few people crawl on top of others, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxd_KlaCiNY.

94Videos showing people crawling or walking on others, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPIn5DPInB4, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_agoPlP_dA, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfQjXi3J3ns.

95People climb up from the container in the South, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5o2wgdHcw.

96Loveparade 2010 Disaster FullHD.mp4 16:54 – 17:03, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfQjXi3J3ns.

97People are pulled up from the container, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoxPIvrFCNg.

98A woman screams for her life, see http://www.youtube.com/verify_age?next_url=/watch%3Fv%3D3x00DBo4gb8.

99Many people yell for help, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxIZwvvhpp8.

100http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3_3UIZS3dw.

101http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc8wEMiOxoo.

102http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbCrmUZeJoY.

103http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLC3vyp0b9U.

104http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJYkNDiDCY.

105http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN4NNmxtRU4.

106http://www.youtube.com/verify_age?next_url=/watch%3Fv%3Ds2ywRwxfHbo.

107http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcAVAYDolKc.

108http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfaLr_Y4U18.

109http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iCA6g984aY.

110http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXLuoqNDJ-A.

111http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYXQLgd_VA8.

112http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb0m_n0KGms.

113http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7WDbM4EonYhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRGtjcbyw8http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEa9_k-Th7Uhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CiEkTPk9BQ.

114Operation room of the city of Duisburg considers the Love Parade as success as late as 17:15, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ILNAv0J1A and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHD8aqsCr9U.

115http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQbto4MNqOU.

116http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR56iEfBQoo.

117Videos of the continuation of the Love Parade after the Crowd Disaster, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz8dID-xTBo.

118RTL documentation, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy1NDX_nA3M.

119Falling from staircase as assumed cause of the crowd disaster, see: http://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Loveparade-endet-im-Unglueck-18-Menschen-sterben-article1127116.html, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IreaH16lm_c, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz8dID-xTBo.

120Mass panic (stampede) as assumed cause of the crowd disaster, see: http://www.focus.de/panorama/welt/loveparade-mindestens-15-tote-nach-massenpanik_aid_533916.htmlhttp://www.welt.de/die-welt/politik/article8627956/15-Tote-bei-der-Love-Parade.htmlhttp://www.videoportal.sf.tv/video?id=b5b05584-57b7-42fe-bbb3-5c28d96ff6aa.

121Wrong behavior of people assumed as reason for the crowd disaster: http://mp3-download.swr.de/swr1/bw/leute/michael-schreckenberg-stauexperte-und-panikforscher.6444m.mp3 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCxAfXjXom4.

122Wikipedia article on stampedes, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stampede.

123For information on the stampede in Baghdad on August 25. 2005, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Baghdad_bridge_stampede.

124For information on the Chicago night club disaster on February 17, 2003, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_E2_nightclub_stampede.

125Early overcrowding outside the festival area, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRUlHnvJl-Q, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opd0rZVsspQ, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aJojVY0E9A, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTbJ_vbT8Cw. See also the endnote.128

126Surveillance videos by the organizers of the Love Parade in Duisburg, showing the situation on the upper part of the ramp: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcQ21EmK7u0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9v7lPPYfBx0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M81I3-3E56whttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcqLFE_pdq0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IB6N6cSVxAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYL-LTYapr0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHrL2o5JY7Mhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krryGhZshg8.

127Videos showing the overcrowded ramp and visitors moving up the slopes left and/or right of the ramp towards the festival area: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzNrGBBw-nAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loX7-LviRr0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AN_8zwycDY0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjQMaO7IBmQ, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36YlTJTrRAc.

128Accordingly to our notes, early crowd turbulence on the upper part of the ramp leading onto the festival area was visible on the video http://video.web.de/watch/7678046, when we accessed it around May 9, 2011, but it does not seem to be available in the Web anymore. According to the archive provided by the Wayback Machine at http://www.archive.org/, this video was apparently linked to an article entitled ‘NRW erhebt schwere Vorwürfe gegen Veranstalter von Love Parade’, which was published by web.de.

129A float is slowly passing the ramp when people start using the slopes to get to the festival area, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1pToqkroZE and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IB6N6cSVxA [Kamera 12 (15:20-15:40)].

130‘Pushers’ are people, who are supposed to put pressure on visitors to keep moving, in this case to ensure an efficient entering into the festival area in order to avoid an obstruction of other visitors trying to get in.

131First person climbs the container around 16:24, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PQqBePT6ig and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjefyv8ShfY.

132People offering help (e.g. water), see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDOlXcobbJM and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0zLKDEglOs.

133Group pushing to the tunnel, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VEbvBMrAG8 around time 1:07.

134‘The staircase should have been blasted away’, see http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/loveparade-experte-zur-ungluecksursache-die-treppe-haette-man-sprengen-muessen-1.979428-2; http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/panorama/vermischtes/Die-Treppe-haette-man-sprengen-muessen/story/10003282.

135For photographs of the accident area see http://loveparade2010doku.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/ungluecksstelle-loveparade6.jpg, http://hvg.hu/nagyitas/20100726_love_parade_duisburg_nagyitas#kep8, http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4134/4912001905_3871745170_o.jpg. For further photographs of the Love Parade disaster, see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/bilder/ and http://www.wz-newsline.de/home/panorama/die-tragoedie-auf-der-loveparade-2010-1.21599.

136Someone falling down, when trying to climb the staircase from the side, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JigIrMkWdYY, http://www.youtube.com/user/rkjorge70, and http://www.youtube.com/user/LoveparadeDuisburg?feature=watch.

137‘Let us take the staircase’ (‘Wir nehmen die Treppe’), see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/07/28/loveparade-2010-zeitablauf-sperrungen-und-durchlassungen/.

138The flow of people on the staircase is considerably obstructed by people, who climb the staircase from the side, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-mfsxz2k2g.

139Falling due to the turbulent waves in the crowd, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ILNAv0J1A.

140Domino effect in the crowd and involuntary stepping on others to survive, see http://www.wdr.de/mediathek/html/regional/2011/07/19/lokalzeit-duisburg-loveparade.xml.

141Crowd turbulence as assumed cause of the crowd disaster, see http://www.pressetext.com/news/20100729019.

142Eyewitnesses describing the cause of the disaster, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b79riRVinJs and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ILNAv0J1A.

143For signs of crowd turbulence on lower part of the ramp see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpzISdBE3dA [Kamera 13: 16:20-16:40], http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JigIrMkWdYY, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2onoJLq2-8. It seems, however, that crowd turbulence occurred even earlier in the upper part of the ramp; a video showing this with the file name http://video.web.de/watch/7678046 was apparently linked to the following web.de article: NRW erhebt schwere Vorwürfe gegen Veranstalter von Love Parade Video, but it is not accessible anymore.

144Note that the fallen people in the video recording are in the shadow. Therefore, one must use full screen mode to notice them, and one needs to watch out for arms raised in the air, seeking for help.

145Videos of the area where the victims were located, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR56iEfBQoo, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbQr5yAjqxs, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYXQLgd_VA8, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPIn5DPInB4, and endnotes.47,48

146http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/07/28/loveparade-2010-zeitablauf-sperrungen-und-durchlassungen/ (nach 16:57, ‘Einschub’).

147Pictures of the broken manhole, see http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfl3rc_rtl2-100tage-loveparade-ausschnitte_news.

148Moreover, video recordings of the situation around the emergency vehicle do not show clear evidence of turbulent motion in its immediate neighborhood.

149Video recordings of the situation around the emergency vehicle on the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VEbvBMrAG8, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNuh9Hk_tgM, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5mf7imNrIY, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-mfsxz2k2g, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dP-5VOCU30U, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzz5geLWPV4.

150For some aerial photographs of the festival area of the Love Parade in Berlin see http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?s=e6cd40536463e09d85e914ba4372578f&p=60946437&postcount=44.

151Private communication; for further eye witness reports see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/07/27/erinnerungen-von-augenzeugen-zusammengefasst-und-verlinkt/.

152Eye witness report, Anlage 68 [attachment no. 68] at https://www.duisburg.de/ratsinformationssystem/bi/vo0050.php?__kvonr=20056110%26voselect=20049862.

153Surveillance by police and helicopter, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3_3UIZS3dw, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aQuTaMbS38, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmQR6kgwSxA and endnote93.

154Situation after 17:20 on the main ramp, entering of a loudspeaker vehicle, and activities in the tunnel, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgCByAtNXmY, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqqdnzAsF60 (removed), http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffqkFOXX3AM, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4W3xb-SMDs, and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j11330qbfb4.

155The police attempts to direct the crowd on the ramp to the upper end, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XFTVWUN8nw.

156This was previously prevented by fences.

157The seriousness of the situation is not recognized, despite the extremely crowded situation around the pole, the container, and the staircase, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9E32qAeOB0k, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2onoJLq2-8, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL_1reQrERg, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N795HhESDkw and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfQjXi3J3ns; also note that most videos do not record the accident area for a long time-the filmers do not seem to notice the location where the conditions was most critical.

158Many visitors follow the leaving emergency vehicle up the ramp, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzz5geLWPV4 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dP-5VOCU30U.

159O. Ackermann et al., Patient care at the 2010 Love Parade in Duisburg, Germany: Clinical experiences, Deutsches Ärzteblatt International 108(28/29), 483-489 (2011), see http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3149288/; see also http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9ILNAv0J1A.

160Or even several interrelated systemic instabilities (since the phenomenon of ‘crowd turbulence’ itself can be seen as outcome of an instability of visitor flows).

161D. Helbing (2010) Systemic Risks in Society and Economics. International Risk Governance Council (irgc), see http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/Systemic_Risks_Helbing2.pdf.

162In a letter dated July 22, 2009, from the (British) Royal Academy to Her Majesty, the Queen, the following explanation was given for the financial crisis, see http://www.euroresidentes.com/empresa_empresas/carta-reina.pdf: ‘…where was the problem? Everyone seemed to be doing their own job properly on its own merit. And according to standard measures of success, they were often doing it well. The failure was to see how collectively this added up to a series of interconnected imbalances over which no single authority had jurisdiction. …Individual risks may rightly have been viewed as small, but the risk to the system as a whole was vast.’ This quote illustrates the mechanism of systemic instability quite well (which may be defined as a situation in which things can get totally out of control, even when everyone is trying to do his or her job in an adequate way).

163http://www.metropoleruhr.de/en/home/ruhr-metropolis/data-facts.html.

164Some tolerable risks associated with the normal entering and leaving of the area are mentioned, but have not been investigated in detail by computer simulations.

165Jamming due to the later start of the Love Parade and criticism of the lack of flow separation, see http://www.wdr.de/mediathek/html/regional/2010/07/26/lokalzeit-duisburg-loveparade-floatveranstalter.xml.

166The emergency forces were not prepared for the large number of injuries, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTbJ_vbT8Cw.

167Police supports people moving up the narrow staircase from 16:35, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYjlXhPcF4s.

168A. Johansson, Data-Driven Modeling of Pedestrian Crowds (VDM Publishers Dr. Mueller, 2009), see http://tud.qucosa.de/fileadmin/data/qucosa/documents/2090/dissertation_johansson_tudresden.pdf and also http://www.crowdvision.co.uk.

169Comparison of the flow organization of the Love Parade (characterized by counterflows) with an alternative, circular flow concept, see http://loveparade2010doku.wordpress.com/2010/07/28/das-umgesetzte-wegekonzept-der-loveparade-2010-und-eine-von-vielen-moglichen-alternativen-im-vergleich/.

170People do not seem to panic easily, but panic mainly appears to occur when people are suddenly shocked (e.g. by a gun shot) or the danger is imminent. If there is time to think, panic is less likely. For example, when the ‘Titanic’ sank slowly, evacuation attempts were largely controlled by social norms, while selfish rescue attempts dominated, when the ‘Lusitania’ sank quickly, see B.S. Frey, D.A. Savage, and B. Torgler, Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters, PNAS 107, 4862-4865 (2010).

171An example for a crowd crush is the crowd disaster in Minsk, Belarus, on May 30, 1999, where a sudden thunderstorm with heavy rain caused people to stream into the near-by ‘Nyamiha’ metro station, see http://www.charonboat.com/item/79 and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Metro.

172An example of crowd panic is the Baghdad bridge stampede on August 31, 2005, where pilgrims moving toward the Al Kadhimiya Mosque got nervous due to rumors of an imminent suicide bomb attack, after there had been already armed conflict on the same day, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Baghdad_bridge_stampede.

173Such turbulent waves are also often observed during rock concerts, when the crowd is very dense.

174Mitarbeiter der Stadt Duisburg werden angefeindet [Staff of the City of Duisburg publicly attacked], see http://www.derwesten.de/staedte/duisburg/mitarbeiter-der-stadt-duisburg-werden-angefeindet-id3319267.html.

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